ANGLO-AMERICAN CONFERENCE OF HISTORIANS. 187
Professor Toynbee said that the prevailing view of historians
to-day in the Western World is that historical events were a
matter of accident or chance, although as he pointed out
a scientific study of history—if it was to aim at being a science
in the ordinarily accepted sense—should seek to discover uni-
formities and from these to extract some laws out of chaos, as
had been done in the physical universe. This attitude was
commended as being "scientific," for it endeavoured to establish
laws out of uncertainty, and it was the opinion of many authorities
on the subject that there were cyclic recurrences in the progress
of mankind and in civilization. The Ancient Greeks had them-
selves sought to apply science to history, and they looked out
for a pattern or plan in the form of cyclic recurrences. On
the other hand some modern scientists had appeared to regard
the physical universe as a one-way process of "diffused radiation,"
and not as a "circular track" with cyclic recurrences.
The paper, although somewhat philosophical, was discussed
by six 01 seven speakers, and they endeavoured to present three
possible explanations of the course of historical events, viz.,
(1) That they occurred as a matter of chance, which is the
negation of pattern. (2) That they were due to definite laws
with a regular pattern, and (3) that they occurred according
to a conscious plan. It was contended that the study of sociology
was based upon the occurrence of cyclic repetitions, that the
rise and fall of civilization were due to a cyclic movement and
that we ourselves might be, at present, an example of this
cyclic change. The web of Penelope was instanced as an
example of recurrence, the tapestry that was woven by day
was unravelled by night and civilization might be such a cycle
or recurrence. Our secular and modern civilization might thus
be regarded as an attempt to achieve what the Ancient Greeks
had attained centuries ago, and we may be finding ourselves
to-day on the same path that they had covered. It would thus
be a periodicity or rhythm that occurs in history, and the wave
which swept over human affairs would attain a maximum effect
depending upon personality and upon economic conditions not
understood or expected.
It was pointed out by Professor G. G. Coulton (Cambridge
Antiquarian Society) that the Great War may have depended on
chance, for had the Germans understood that our country