The Essex Naturalist
99
Each site predicted was scrutinised for signs of browse and droppings. Deer
presence was only recorded as definite if slots were found. If the slot was unclear,
however, or only one was found, then it was disregarded. Once deer presence
was recorded, then the browse effects were closely examined. Muntjac browse is
closer to the ground than fallow. The amount of browse effect was then assessed
against three photographs showing light, medium and heavy foliage reduction.
From this a rough guide to deer density could be estimated. It was not possible in
the time to survey the foliage reduction per square metre.
An estimate was made of how recent the deer signs were. Deer slots in ground
that was still wet, droppings which were still glossy and browse effects still green
and unwithered at the points where leaves or branches were broken meant that
the deer had been present within the last day or two, and these were defined as
fresh signs. All other signs were held to be old; it could be a month or more
since they were made.
Using the above criteria, fresh deer signs were predicted to be found at the
following sites in Epping Forest and the bufferlands :
Oxleys Wood; The Warren Wood; Conybury Wood; Brambly Shaw; St.
Thomas's Quarters; Epping Thicks; Rookery Wood; Little Rookery Wood;
Spratt's Hedgerow Wood; Fitches Plantation; Truelove's; Sewardstone Green;
Birch Wood; Honey Lane Quarters; Galleyhill Wood. Total 15 sites.
Some of the above locations were already known or suspected to contain deer,
but each site was chosen solely because it matched the criteria, and not because
of any prior knowledge. Had prior knowledge been an issue then other locations
would have been included, such as Deershelter Plain which did not meet the
criteria as defined.
Each of the locations was checked three times in the course of the study, and
the most recent signs of deer browsing were recorded to classify the site. The
sites were classified as :
Fresh heavy effect 6 Old heavy effect 0
Fresh medium effect 3 Old medium effect 2
Fresh light effect 2 Old light effect 0
These results show that the behavioural hypothesis prediction technique (13
correct of 15) is 85% accurate in predicting deer presence within the last year
(because after a year, not even the old signs will be present) and 73% accurate
in predicting deer presence within the last few days. The two failures were
Truelove's and Sewardstone Green. Truelove's was ideal in terms of wood and
grassland (and many fresh muntjac signs were found here), but the bridle track
running through it was much used by dog walkers and mountain bikers. Dog
walkers are known to frighten fallow (Qvist 1977). Sewardstone Green had a
small road going through the edge of it which was used by pedestrians. There
were several houses nearby which were difficult to see on the map.