Phenology in Essex: lessons from the past and examples of recent trends 35 Figure 3. The relationship between mean appearance date of honey bee in Essex 1891-1927 and February mean temperature. The two aberrant points are based on single values only. Honey bee February temperature Figure 4. Changes in the first arrival times of sand martin in Essex 1964-1997. The solid line represents the underlying, smoothed, trend. Sand martin 1975 1985 Year Essex Naturalist (New Series) 17 (2000)